Tag Archives: Monte Carlo

Sales Forecasting

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The term ‘Forecasting’ by far is coined by the words ‘fore’ & ‘casting’, meaning predicting in advance… First Thoughts… are we trying to play GOD… Predicting in advance??

Oh no… That’s not it…

The best we do is act logical and have some stats to back that logic which results in a logical explanation to things.

Business Decision making has been a challenge for executives. No doubt, business decisions making needs analytical experience and that gut feeling, but that too is to be backed by some numbers and statistics. Based on the available data, forecasts simply tell what the future trend is going to be. As a result, executives have something to hold on to while taking significant business-related decisions because ‘numbers never lie’. But getting those numbers is not as easy a task as it sounds. These high-quality forecasts take a lot of time and effort due to which the demand for these forecasts is not usually met by the analytical team.

Companies based on their forecasted figures follow a certain educated guess which rarely hits on target, so as they say, ‘no forecasting model is perfect’ and it is because of the number of assumptions one must take into building a certain model. In sales institutions, the concept of demand and supply is driven by sales forecasting. Based on the historical trends and keeping in mind a ton of other factors like seasonality, cyclicity, periodicity etc., forecasting is done to reflect the best possible marketplace conditions. These factors are incorporated to include randomness and uncertainty giving the forecasting model a life-like scenario. To predict profit, one must know the number of products an organization is going to produce and sell in the next year and the price each of that product would fetch to the company. This prediction depends on the economic scenario of the coming ‘N’ number of months which will eventually decide the customer’s behavior and their buying patterns. All this cannot be known accurately beforehand while creating the forecasting plan. These are some of the assumptions one has to take while creating a forecasting model. That’s why forecasts are inaccurate, but this shouldn’t stop you from using them. Learning even a small amount using these forecasting models can give you an edge over your competition. Forecasts are not the means itself to excel in your business, they are just a benchmark for you to follow and reach a certain level.

As Oscar Wilde correctly said, “A good forecaster is not smarter than everyone else, he merely has his ignorance better organized”. There will always be gaps in these forecasting models as these are just a means for us to simplify a complicated problem. The best we can do is to judiciously use these forecasts for our advantage to back our gut instinct while taking a business decision.

Every organization uses one or the other analytical forecasting tool keeping in mind their key business factors. They plan for the next ‘N’ number of months and work accordingly to achieve and go beyond that plan. People like what is simple and that’s what our team of business consultants, technologists and data scientists did for you, they worked on the same problem statement and came up with DelphiA Sales forecasting and Predictive Analytics application for Salesforce CRM.

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Delphi intuitively uses collective organizational knowledge to analyze and predict forecasted values of opportunities. The complex algorithms predict when an opportunity in your pipeline will convert into an order and forecast’s the value of your Opportunities, Accounts and Sales Reps.

Delphi works on Machine Learning to produce quality forecasts.

Based on your Organization’s historical data Delphi analyzes the business trend and shows the forecasted output accordingly.

Delphi uses complex Machine Learning algorithms to give you a zero-hassle holistic view of your salesforce org in just a CLICK!! Delphi prioritizes your opportunity by generation opportunity score and recommends Sales Rep assignment for those Opportunities, helping you to allocate your resources and prioritize your work. It also tells when the opportunities are going to be closed and the forecasted amount that they might fetch when they are closed.

 

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Try DELPHI for free here!!

In all, Delphi is a forecasting tool which ensures that you are not left just only with your gut feeling while taking a crucial business decision. Now you do have a skilled analytical companion with you.

Thanks for reading!!

Posted in Analytics, Forecasting, Monte Carlo Simulation, Prediction, Sales, Salesforce, Salesforce AI, Salesforce Einstein, Salesforce Machine Learning. Tagged with , , , , , , , , .